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About the Role of North- and
  Baltic Sea during

Winter 2013/14 and human impact!

Started on 03 January 2014, and will be continued.

    1st Part (03 Jan.2014)  ; Part 2 (06. Jan. 2014); Part 3 (12. Jan.2014)
'Part 4 (20.Jan14) ; 
Part 5 (30. Jan.14), Part 6 (9.Feb.14)

   

Part 7: Is winter already gone?
Posted on 22 February 2014 (2007seatraing.de; 14/11a)  
Update: Met-Off say: Spring has sprung.
>>>GO
Posted: 06. March 2014

 It looks like the very stormy weather pattern over western Europe will continue through until the end of February, predicted The Weather Channel few days ago on 7th February (Fig. 9-10) Indeed, it seems this winter in Europe will soon finish without showing up as winter. The closest it came was around 20th of January (see: Part 5). Compared to 2012 and 2013 North Sea (Fig. 1-3) and North Atlantic (Fig.4) sea-water temperatures anomalies are very high. There is only remote sea ice in the Baltic today (22. February), which is well below average, Fig. 5-7  

SST anomalies - 22. Feb 2014 - northern Europe

Fig. 1; 24. Feb.2012

Fig. 2; 26.Feb.2013

Fig. 3; 22.Feb.2014

Fig. 4; 22.Feb.2014

.  

Fig. 5, Baltic sea ice, 17.Feb.2014

Fig. 6; Baltic sea ice, 22.Feb.2014

Fig. 7; Average per 21. February

           

Until now the winter was too warm in West Europe and very wet in Great Britain (see Part 6), caused by a jet stream running from the SE coast of the US across the Atlantic to western Europe from south-west (Fig. 8). This minimizes the risk of cold air from Siberia to reach the Atlantic . The grant for server frost conditions, a high air pressure system over Scandinavia never established, and there are hardly any indications that this will happen pretty soon or at all, as THE WEATHER CHANNEL forecast  on 7th February (Fig. 9-10)  assumed that:

It isn't certain at the moment, but from the end of February there are signs that the jet stream will eventually relent and begin to change track, returning northwards.

Actually, Europe is too warm (Fig. 11) , and Siberian cold air is far away (Fig. 12). Meanwhile we wonder how long high temperature SST anomalies (Fig.3) will last, and whether we are up to a big surprise and cold spring, when they should turn negative as it happened last year (see HERE) .

Fig. 8, Jet steam 22.Feb.2014

Fig.9;  Weatherforcast Feb.2014

Fig.10: Weatherforcast Feb.2014

Fig.11; Forecast, 22/02-03/03/14

Fig. 12; Russia 22.Feb.2014

Fig.13; Global 22.Feb.2014

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Update: Met-Off say: Spring has sprung.
Posted: 06. March 2014

  Spring has sprung, claims the Meteorological Office/UK (Fig.14), and available indicator give little ground for objection. The most what could happen is a late and cold spring season, which may be lasting until May. But that remains to be seen. Currently it looks like the winter 2013/14 in Europe has gone without showing up as winter. That was due to a strong southward trend of the jet stream across the North Atlantic causing stormy conditions, which prevented cold air from north-east to reach West-Europe, for example in late January (see: HERE).

Left: Figure 14

Currently the maritime influence is still highly dominant (Fig. 15 & 16), either the jet stream (Fig.17). Cold continental air has withdrawn to Siberia (Fig.18), and only if the higher air pressure over Western Russia would intensify and move to Scandinavia , the situation might change. At the moment there is hardly any reason for such expectation. Sea surface temperature (SST) succeeds average in the northern North Atlantic (Fig. 19), Barents Sea (Fig.20) and very significant from the English Channel to Skagerrak (Fig.21), since December 2013; see: 15./Dec.,  31./Dec., 20./Jan., 8./Feb., 22./Feb.. It remains to be seen how long the North Sea continues to staying above average SST, contributing to warm air temperatures in Europe for the next time (Fig.22)

Figure 15

Figure 16

Figure 17

Figure 18

 

Fig. 19; North Atlantic , SST-Anomalies, 6.March 2014

Fig.20. NA-Arctic sector, SST-Anom., 6.March 2014

SST animalies - 6.March 2014 - northern Europe

   

Fig. 21, North Sea

Fig.22; TC forecast (6-14.March)

Amended 8.March 2014
February 2014 air temperature condition is unusual. The Northern Hemisphere is very cold, except the eastern Pacific and Central Europe (Fig. 23). The Pacific hot-spot exists at least since: 4.Nov.13, 4.Dec.13, 6.Jan.14, 8.Feb.14, and on 7. March 2014 (Fig. 24). Meanwhile Europe was squeezed in between North Atlantic and Asia , Fig. 25. We have documented this situation since 3.Jan2014 (Part 1) frequently, and observed that sea ice in the Baltic remained on a very low level (17.Feb14); where it is still today (Fig. 26), with North Sea SST-anomalies well above average, Fig. 27, since long (e.g. 20.Jan.14).. Time to question the role of regional seas and a possible human contribution may have had on preventing a normal winter in Europe ?

 

 

Fig. 23, Air TC Anomaly - February 2014

Fig. 24, 8.March 2014

Fig. 25, Air TC Anomaly Feb./2014

 

Fig. 26

Fig.27

 

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European winter 2012/13 and spring 2013, documented at: 

14. May 2013Met Office brainstorms UK bad weather, titles THE GUARDIAN 13. May 2013 (ocl_7-9) 
02 May 2013: Cold spring 2013 in NW-Europe will last through May.
The Atlantic & North Sea factor. (co_8-4)
23. April 2013: Met-Off loose talk on cold March 2013? North and Baltic Sea should not be ignored! (ocl_9-8)

11. April 2013: 'Urgent' need to see if Arctic affects UK extreme cold? No! MetOffice should investigate the impact of human activities in the North- and Baltic Sea ! (co_9-4)
03 April 2013: Did the cold March 2013 came from Siberia ? A not well founded claim! (ocl_9-9)
29 March 2013: Cold March 2013 in company with March 1942 & 1917 (co 10-2) 
27. March 2013: Strong Start Strong Ending; Winter 2012/13. About the Role of North- and Baltic Sea (2007seatraining 1310)
26. March 2013; March 2013 snow in the UK and the North Sea . Did human activities contributed? (ocl 10_2)
21 March 2013; Cold March 2013 in UK and North Europe science should be able to explain! (ocl_10-3)
07 March 2013:  Winter 2012/13 for Northern Europe is over! The Baltic and North Sea will prevent a surprise in March! (ocl-10_4)
19. January 2013: Northern Europe's bulwark against Asian cold from 19-31. (oc_12-8)
14. January 2013: North- and Baltic Sea influence Europe s winter 2012/2013 until now. (ocl_12_6)
09 December 2012 (+ 21 & 26 Dec) : Are we heading to severe Baltic Sea ice conditions by 30th December 2012? (2007seatraining)

 Part 6: Continental air prevented from going West!  
Posted 8th February 2014 (2007seatraing.de - 11b)  
First Addendum 9. Feb 2014 
Second Addendum: UK in rain- Regional seas too warm.  
>>>GO  

 Part 1:  (03 Jan.2014)  
Mild December 2013 caused by off-shore wind farms and human activities in North- and Baltic Sea ?

Will winter 2013/14 show an anthropogenic impact?

03 January 2014 (seatraining2007_1412a)  

Part 2: (06 Jan. 2014)

Part 2: North Atlantic dominated December 2014 weather in Europe .
Continental Asian cold was hold at bay.  

Part 3: (08 January 2014
Part 3: What will bring winter to Europe ?
Posted 08 January 2013 (2007seatraing.de; 1412c)  
+ Add 1 (12.Jan.2014) Flooding in UK

To be continued 

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