Home

Home

About the Role of North- and
  Baltic Sea during

Winter 2013/14 and human impact!

Started on 03 January 2014, and will be continued.

    1st Part (03 Jan.2014)  ; Part 2 (06. Jan. 2014); Part 3 (12. Jan.2014)
'Part 4 (20.Jan14) ; 
Part 5 (30. Jan.14) Part 7 (22.Feb.14)

   Part 6: Continental air prevented from going West!  
Posted 8th February 2014 (2007seatraing.de - 11b)  
First Addendum 9. Feb 2014 >>>GO
Second Addendum: UK in rain- Regional seas too warm. (15:Feb) >>>GO

 Current Western Europe winter was mild, stormy, and wet. According UK-Met.Office many records have been registered in the UK (Fig. 1), claiming that in Southern England the period since mid December could be the most exceptional period of winter rainfall in at least 248 years. Atlantic weather dominated the scene over Europe . High air pressure minimising the flow of warm moisture air eastwards was hardly noticeable. A brief cold spell about 14 days ago was stopped by at the eastern Baltic shores (see Part 5). Sea surface temperatures (SST) Europe ’s coastal seas are still to warm for this time that prevents cold continental air to play a serious role until now. Are human activities partly to blame for this situation? Do shipping and off-shore installation contribute to well above SST?

 Over the few days SST developments sea areas along Danish and German’s coast indicate a correlation. Here water temperatures are much lower than average. But here is also shipping highest and off-shore installation the most numerous. Holland is just completing a further wind park with about 150 turbines, raising the total North Sea figure well above 500 (see: Part 1).

Fig. 2, 3. Feb. 2014

Fig. 3, 8. Feb. 2014

Fig. 4, 8. Feb. 2014

  As air temperatures from Oslo to Hamburg have not been low during the last weeks, the sub low SST are likely to be caused by a different source. One needs only to recognise the considerable SST surplus from the Dover to the German Bight. Sun ray is still by far too weak. Any surplus is most likely linked to heat store in the water column. A trend change is now evident. Last year North Sea SST dropped well below average in mid March, see Fig. 5. Will it work this year similar?

It will not happen soon. Baltic Sea ice is below ( Fig. 6 & 7), and air temperatures well above average (Fig. 8). It is worth to watch further developments.  

Fig. 6;

Fig.7

Fig. 8

 Back to Top 

First Addendum 9.Feb.2014

For comparison: 
(1) 
A Low pressure system at Scotland on 23.Nov.1939 
(2) 
Air pressure charts from 9. Feb. 1940 and 9. Feb. 2014; and 
(3) 
Air temperatures in Europe between 1940 & 2014 on 9th of February.  

Fig. 9 for comparison with Fig. 13

Sinking of HMS Rawalpindi 23.Nov.1939

Extract from Book Chapter A2 at:
www.seaclimate.com

 On November 23rd 1939 the available Royal Navy ships in the sea area between Iceland and Scotland were deployed to hunt down two German battleships and their escorts that had sunk the auxiliary cruiser "Rawalpindi" south-east of Island in an earlier encounter. During this action the air pressure over Iceland dropped fast and a short time later wind force increased to Beaufort 12.

 

What cause the big differences between February 1940 & 2014?

 9. February 1940  - Fig. 10-12

 9. February 2014 – Fig. 13-15

 

Second Addendum: UK in rain- Regional seas too warm.
Posted 15. February 2014
 

The United Kingdom seems doomed by rain. The North Atlantic reigns Western Europe , while continental high air pressure is still hiding, and not available to challenge maritime air to flow free eastwards.  Met-Office/UK notes that figures suggest the region of SE and Central S England has already exceeded its record winter rainfall in the series back to 1910. It is currently at 439.2mm*, less than 2mm above the previous record set in 1915 with 437.1mm of rain (Fig. 16). Now rain statistics for January indicate up to 300% rain above average (1980-2010) in Central South England (Fig.2).

Fig.16; MetOff. Analysis “Winter 2013/14”

Fig. 17: MetOff. Analysis UK Rain January 2014

No winter in sight. Today another storm passes Great Britain (Fig. 18). Central Europe looks as if spring is starting soon (see Fig. 23). A seriously contributing aspect is high sea surface temperatures in European regional seas from the Biscay to the Barents Sea (see Fig. 4, 8th Feb.14), and Fig. 24. The high SST anomalies in English Channel and North Sea contribute significantly to UK ’s floods, Fig. 19. One should be interested in a query, to what extend have this anomalies a link to human activities.

Fig. 18, MetOff. Weather map 15.02.2014

Fig. 19; SST anomalies  15.02.2014

Fig. 20

Fig. 21

 Those may have a particularly significant impact in the Baltic. Sea ice does almost not exist, at least well below average (Fig. 20 & 21), and the outlook offers no big changes in the near future (Fig. 22), although a huge region east of the Ural has plenty of cold air in store. They may get the order to march west, as soon as high SST along Europe ’s shore weakens. It happens last year. (HERE) It is likely to happen this year, which we would link to man’s activities in the marine environment.

Fig. 22

Fig. 23

 TOP

   HOME

European winter 2012/13 and spring 2013, documented at: 

14. May 2013Met Office brainstorms UK bad weather, titles THE GUARDIAN – 13. May 2013 (ocl_7-9) 
02 May 2013: Cold spring 2013 in NW-Europe will last through May.
The Atlantic & North Sea factor. (co_8-4)
23. April 2013: Met-Off loose talk on cold March 2013? North and Baltic Sea should not be ignored! (ocl_9-8)

11. April 2013: 'Urgent' need to see if Arctic affects UK extreme cold? No! MetOffice should investigate the impact of human activities in the North- and Baltic Sea ! (co_9-4)
03 April 2013: Did the cold March 2013 came from Siberia ? A not well founded claim! (ocl_9-9)
29 March 2013: Cold March 2013 in company with March 1942 & 1917 (co 10-2) 
27. March 2013: Strong Start – Strong Ending; Winter 2012/13. About the Role of North- and Baltic Sea (2007seatraining 1310)
26. March 2013; March 2013 snow in the UK and the North Sea . Did human activities contributed? (ocl 10_2)
21 March 2013; Cold March 2013 in UK and North Europe science should be able to explain! (ocl_10-3)
07 March 2013:  Winter 2012/13 for Northern Europe is over! The Baltic and North Sea will prevent a surprise in March! (ocl-10_4)
19. January 2013: Northern Europe's bulwark against Asian cold from 19-31. (oc_12-8)
14. January 2013: North- and Baltic Sea influence Europe ’s winter 2012/2013 until now. (ocl_12_6)
09 December 2012 (+ 21 & 26 Dec) : Are we heading to severe Baltic Sea ice conditions by 30th December 2012? (2007seatraining)

 

 

 

 Part 1:  (03 Jan.2014)  
Mild December 2013 caused by off-shore wind farms and human activities in North- and Baltic Sea ?

Will winter 2013/14 show an anthropogenic impact?

03 January 2014 (seatraining2007_1412a)  

Part 2: (06 Jan. 2014)

Part 2: North Atlantic dominated December 2014 weather in Europe .
Continental Asian cold was hold at bay.  

Part 3: (08 January 2014
Part 3: What will bring winter to Europe ?
Posted 08 January 2013 (2007seatraing.de; 1412c)  
+ Add 1 (12.Jan.2014) Flooding in UK

To be continued 

Home