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 About the Role of North- and Baltic Sea during 
Winter 2013/14 and human impact!

Started on 03 January 2014, and will be continued.

    1st Part (03 Jan.2014)  ;   Part 2 (06. Jan. 2014) ; 'Part 4 (20.Jan14) ; 
Part 5 (30. Jan.14), Part 6 (9.Feb.14)
  ; Part 7 (2. Feb.14)

Part 3: What will bring winter to Europe ?
Posted 08 January 2013 (2007seatraing.de; 1412c)  
+ Add 1 (12.Jan.2014) Flooding in UK

 While North America experiences the most severe freeze over the last two decades [HERE] with many, many cold records within a few days, Europe to far beyond Ural wonders whether it is heading toward spring.

Fig. 1, Met-Off. Weather map 08 Jan. 2014

Fig. 2, North_east Asia Temp.-map , 08 Jan.14

 Today, on 8th. Jan. 2014, the meteorologist Marcus Beyer at the German Weather Service saw two possibilities to change Europe’s weather conditions toward winter*):

  1. At the position of the Low “Christiana” in the Eastern North Atlantic establishes a High Pressure, with a corresponding Low over Eastern Europe, or
  2. A High Pressure over Scandinavia and corresponding Low Pressure in the Mediterranean . 

Cold air could then transport continental air masses from Russia , because mild air has moved far into the East, thus cold air is far away (Fig. 2).

 First the cold over North America needs to disappear. With the withdrawal of cold air from the North Atlantic this area is virtually without energy. In a second step the winter gathers his cold companions across northern and northeastern Europe . Tool for this purpose is a strong low-pressure (e.g. Christiana, see Fig. 1) moving to the Baltic countries and Russia . This would allow cold air to be sucked from the pole.  In a third and final the “weather” pushes Atlantic low pressure areas as far as the southern cyclone track towards the Mediterranean . This can happen by early next week (13-19-Jan.), while a strong high pressure is placed over Scandinavia and the North Sea . This would clear the way for the cold air to flow from north-eastern Europe to Western Europe
_*) The text is only available in German and the text in italic is only a rough summary from one paragraph; 
http://www.dwd.de/bvbw/appmanager/bvbw/dwdwwwDesktop?_nfpb=true&_pageLabel=dwdwww_start&_nfls=false   

 

08 Jan 2014

Fig. 3, Air T°C Anomaly

Fig. 4, T°C forecast

Fig. 5, SST anomaly; 8Jan

Fig. 6, Global SST anomaly

No word Marcus Beyer has for the question, why warm air dominates from Eastern North Atlantic all the way to Siberia (Fig. 3). Of course the North Atlantic weather machine is a main player. But what about the role of regional coastal, and semi enclosed seas?

Temperature forecast for two weeks (07 to 23. Jan. 2014), show the sea surface temperature (SST) influence on Baltic air temperature clearly, Fig. 4. Throughout December 2013 SST had been above average HERE, HERE, and HERE; and from today Fig. 5.

Fig. 7, Ship area plugged p/d

Fig. 8; Scandinavia T-map, 8.Jan.

Fig. 9, Average January Air-T

What is the cause of the high anomaly? Daily sunshine is short, and recent days did not see much. The North Atlantic SST seems to be on an average level (Fig.6). But the Barents Sea and sea areas around Europe are above average.

 How does this come about? What is the role of off-shore wind farms and platforms? In particular, what contributions come from shipping? Alone in the Baltic Sea about 2’000 sizable ships are in move at any time, which means that within one to two weeks the entire Baltic sea surface is revolved over a depth of about 3 to 10 Meters (Fig. 7). This means that at this time of the year huge amount of heat is transferred from the sea body in the air. Ever temperature map is indication it (e.g. Fig. 4), or Figure 8 ( Scandinavia , 08Jan.2014, by MeteoGroup). A considerable impact can not be denied. [see Air-T in January, Figure 9]  

It seems high time to pay more attention on the impact of human activities in Europe ’s regional seas on winter conditions. Due to Atlantic weather dominance it may currently be not so easy to prove a very significant impact, but winter has just started, and we will continue to provide information on how winter conditions in N-Europe developed, and what role the sea played. 

 

Add. 1: Heavy Flooding in England/UK

 THE CARBON BRIEF; 10 Jan 2014, 15:05;   Roz Pidcock  http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2014/01/cameron-gets-the-balance-about-right-on-climate-change-and-extreme-weather/  Extract download 11 January 2014  

Stormy weather  [ across the UK – since December 2013)

The heavy storms hitting Britain in recent weeks attracted a lot of media coverage. Some commented on potential links with climate change, but most left the topic well alone, and one or two flatly dismissed the idea of a connection between the weather the UK is experiencing and any wider climate change.

During Wednesday's Prime Minister's questions, Liberal Democrat MP Tim Farron suggested the recent weather in the UK was a "destructive and inevitable consequence, at least in part, of climate change". Asked whether he agreed, David Cameron replied:

"I agree with you that we are seeing more abnormal weather events. Colleagues across the House can argue about whether that is linked to climate change or not. I very much suspect that it is."

Soon after, BBC News reported:

"The floods affecting large parts of the country are probably connected to climate change, David Cameron has said".

While the Guardian headlined: 

"David Cameron 'very much suspects' climate change is behind recent storms"  //cont…  

Risk of heavy rain and flooding set to rise, scientists say

On top of strong winds, a particularly destructive impact of the recent storms has been widespread flooding across the country. By Monday this week, the Met Office had issued flood warning for almost all of the UK and 100 still remain in place across England and Wales .

Flood warnings in place across most of the UK on Monday. Source:  Met Office Will climate change lead to more scenes like this?

One thing that affects flood risk is the amount of rain that falls when a storm hits. Research suggests rising greenhouse gases have doubled the likelihood of extreme rainfall in Europe and North America . Professor Richard Allan from Reading University explains there's a fairly simple physical reason for this:
"As temperatures rise, basic physics dictates an increase in the amount of atmospheric moisture, which is the fuel for heavy rainfall events."

Professor Peter Stott from the Met Office told journalists at a briefing in London today what this increase in atmospheric moisture means for the UK :
"There's a great deal of variability in UK rainfall but the greater moisture in the atmosphere, which feeds storms when they form … that means when we get weather patterns conducive to heavy or prolonged rainfall, we can expect the rainfall to be more intense."  //cont…..

The Met Office says it's too soon to tell for sure whether climate change influenced the odds of the recent flooding happening. A spokesperson tells us:
"No attribution study has been carried out on the stormy weather the UK has recently experienced."

 Too early to predict storms  //cont….
 A broader view of extreme weather  //cont….

At: The Carbon Brief

 Part 1:  (03 Jan.2014)  
Mild December 2013 caused by off-shore wind farms and human activities in North- and Baltic Sea ?

Will winter 2013/14 show an anthropogenic impact?

03 January 2014 (seatraining2007_1412a)  

Part 2: (06 Jan. 2014)

Part 2: North Atlantic dominated December 2014 weather in Europe .
Continental Asian cold was hold at bay.

To be continued 

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