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Are we heading to severe
 Baltic Sea ice conditions
by 30th December 2012?

3rd -and last- UPDATE: 30th Dec.2012; 
Previous posts:  09., 21. and 26. December –below-

  That’s it, at least for now! Any serious sea ice cover in the Baltic can not longer be expected soon. A peak had been reached on 26th Dec. (Fig.18), but weakened since (Fig.19, 30/Dec.). Although the ice extent per 30. Dec. is still higher than the long-term mean per 1st January (Fig. 20), it is likely to remain on a moderate level for at least the next weeks (Fig. 21), as lower temperatures can only be expected after Jan.07, (Fig.22).  At the end of the year 2012, the Baltic SST seems to be within the normal range at this time of the season (Fig. 23 & Fig.24).  


Fig. 18, December 26, 2012


Fig. 19, December 30, 2012


Fig.20, Average per 01 January

 

 


SST

Above:
Fig. 20 & 21

 Fig. 23 (left)
&
Fig. 24 (right)

 30.Dec.12


Anomaly

For source of graphics see: Fig. 10 & 14-17  
 Below: Fig.25; Update sea ice on 31/12/2012  

 

2nd UPDATE  26. Dec.2012; 

Previous post 09. & 21. December –below-

 The sea ice in the Northern Baltic Sea increased significantly, but is still not close to the level at the same time two years ago. As the Asian cold snap moved eastwards (see NTZ, 26/Dec/12), a big increase can not be expected soon. The recent cold in the north-east had only moderate impact in the south-western Baltic.  
Figures 14-17

 

Fig. 14; 27Th Dec. 2010

Fig. 15; 26 Dec. 2012

Fig. 16;  SST anomaly 
27. Dec.2010

Fig. 17 ;  SST anomaly 
26. Dec.2012

 

http://www.itameriportaali.fi/en/itamerinyt/en_GB/jaatilanne/

Source; http://ocean.dmi.dk/satellite/index.uk.php

           

  1st UPDATE  21. Dec.2012

Previous post 09 Dec.2012 – below -

  East-Europe and Central Asia feel an extraordinary cold December (H/T NoTrickZone; 21Dec.12), as reported: 
___The spate of cold weather that has lasted for weeks in many parts of Europe has now claimed at least 600 lives Eastern Europe.
___The Russian RT reports: ­The country has not witnessed such a long cold spell since 1938, meteorologists said, with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees lower than the seasonal norm all over Russia . Across the country, 45 people have died due to the cold, and 266 have been taken to hospitals. In total, 542 people were injured due to the freezing temperatures, RIA Novosti reported.  
Figures 9-13 

  21. December
2012

 

08:08 UTC
08:28 UTC

Source: http://www.findlocalweather.com/weather_maps/temperature_north_asia.html

 The cold snap finds a barrier at the shore of the Baltic Sea . Currently the Baltic Sea still matches average conditions, as indicated in the following images (Source: The Baltic Sea Portal) increased significantly between 18th and 21st December (next Fig. left & right), and is surpassed ‘normal’ (middle-Fig) today (21Dec). Significant is the sea ice at the shore of Estonia .  

Enlargeable - Sea ice 18th Dec. 2012

Average per 21st December

Sea ice  21st Dec. 2012 - enlargeable

 
Are we heading to severe Baltic Sea ice conditions
by 30th December 2012?
The situation on 8th December 2010, 2011 and 2012.
 Posted on 09 December 2012

 Severe sea ice condition appeared in the Skagerrak by the end of December 2010, as discussed HERE. Presumably it has been the most extensive ice cover in the Skagerrak since the 19th Century at such an early date. From this post we reproduce the status on 31st December 2010. The thereon following images show the current situation. Two images (blue) indicate the mean status in the Northern Baltic on the 1st and 11th December. The subsequent three graphics indicate the situation on the 8th December 2010, 2011 and 2012. In December 2010 there was already slightly more sea ice as currently. A comparison of the sea water temperatures in the Skagerrak between 2010 and 2012 (enlarge the graphs) show, that they were equal. It will be interesting how the developments will be during the next three weeks.

For the further developments during winter 2010/11
see: A sudden sea ice increase in the Baltic Sea, February 2011.

 Comparision between December Ice in 2010 & 2012
Figures 2-7

 

 

 

30th December 2010

 

 

 

 

Average 01 December

Average 11 December

08 December 2010

08 December 2011

08 December 2012

           

  Two Reports from December 2010
08 December 2012  

11th Dec.: WEATHER: 35,000 DEATHS FEAR IN NEW ARCTIC BLIZZARDS

http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/216765/Weather-35-000-deaths-fear-in-new-Arctic-blizzards

 

17th Dec: Coldest December since records began as temperatures plummet to minus 10C  bringing travel chaos across Britain

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1339149/Big-freeze-Temperatures-plummet-10C-bringing-travel-chaos-Britain.html

The winter 2010 -Summary  

Winter of 2010–2011 in Europe; WIKIPEDIA, last updated 14 November 2012:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_European_winter_cold_snap_of_2010-2011