About the Role of North- and Baltic Sea during 
Winter 2013/14 and human impact!
Started on 03 January 2014, and will be continued.

    1st Part (03 Jan.2014)  ;   Part 2 (06. Jan. 2014)  Part 3 (12. Jan.2014),
  Part 5 (30. Jan.14), Part 6 (9.Feb.14) ; Part 7 (22.Feb.14)

   Part 4: Europe has spring condition in January 2014,
and Met. Services have no clue!
Posted: 20/21. January 2014 (11d); 

 a. Introduction
December was too warm. January as per today was too warm. Is only the Atlantic responsible? What role did well above average sea surface temperature (SST) play since early December 2013 in all regional sea areas from English Channel to Finnish Gulf ?

At least meteorological services do not care. In case  January remains as mild as per 17/01, it would become the third mildest in Germany since 1881, claims DWD (Deutscher Wetterdienst, Press-release, 17. Jan.14), suggesting that it is a matter of the Jet stream, which separate cold polar air from warmer subtropical air. However the Atlantic weather machine has supremacy only as long as cold continental air is held at bay. At  Met Newsblog (16 Jan.14) titled: “Mild wet winter continues in early January figures”, not one word about this, but saying –inter alias-:

·         Provisional half-month statistics up to the 15^th of January show a continuation of the generally mild and wet theme of the UK ’s winter thus far. The mean UK temperature up to the 15^th of January is 5.1 °C, which is 1.5 °C above the long-term (1981-2010) average.

·         The mild January so far follows on from a mild UK December, which had a mean temperature of 5.7 °C, which is 1.8 °C above the long-term average – making it the eighth mildest December in records dating back to 1910, and the mildest since 1988….(cont)

·         The wet January so far once again follows the theme set in December, which saw 184.7mm of rain – which is 154% of the average for the month.  ….(cont)

·         The main reason for the mild and wet weather so far is that we have seen a predominance of west and south-west winds, bringing in mild air from the Atlantic – as well as generally unsettled conditions. …. (cont.)

The DWD  is not more explicit, just observing that it has been unusual mild until now, and that mild air form the Atlantic have moved up to the Ural. That regional seas west of the Ural may act as a significant source to ‘allow’ Atlantic low pressure to move straight eastwards and reach the Ural, and are due to cold air from NE stopped from entering West Europe, and diverted either the North Cape or Gibraltar, seems not of great interest for forecaster and weather analysts.

b. Global Overview  

Since mid December the snow cover across the Northern Hemisphere has hardly changed (Fig 5 & 6).

 Remarkable are the high SST anomalies in the Northern Pacific. AT the same time deviation in the North Atlantic are modest (Fig. 7 & 8) 

 One air temperature anomaly DWD graphic of current winter 2013/14 is given in Fin 9, and concerning SST anomalies the Arctic in Fig.10, both per 17. January 2014.  

 The high temperature anomaly in Europe (Fig. 9) and SST in Europe, particularly Barents Sea, and Northern Europe (Fig. 1-4) is remarkable. What role did shipping, and off-shore platforms and wind farms play?  The high heat figures indicate that they significantly contributed to hold cold air from the Arctic and Eastern Russia at bay.  

The high temperature anomaly in Europe (Fig. 9) and SST in Europe, particularly Barents Sea, and Northern Europe (Fig. 1-4) is remarkable. What role did shipping, and off-shore platforms and wind farms play?  The high temperature figures indicate that they significantly contributed to hold cold air from the Arctic and Eastern Russia at bay. 

c. Russia and Europe    

The recent temperature situation in Russia is shown in Fig. 11 & 12, which have now reached the Baltic countries, which experience temperatures below of minus 15°C over the last few days, while the Western Baltic Sea were still above 0°C.

 Until now heating capacity of the Baltic Sea remained very high, preventing sea ice forming (Fig. 12-16). Only now the situation tends toward ‘normal’ in the NE of the Baltic Fig. 17+18. However, from the Baltic proper to the English Channel SST are still well above average (Fig. 4). Remains the question: Why is this the case?  

 Provisonal : Global SST-Anonmalies 29 Jan. 2014 // NOTE: High  devation in NE Pacific!

 Part 1:  (03 Jan.2014)  
Mild December 2013 caused by off-shore wind farms and human activities in North- and Baltic Sea ?
Will winter 2013/14 show an anthropogenic impact?
03 January 2014 (seatraining2007_1412a)  

Part 2: (06 Jan. 2014)
Part 2: North Atlantic dominated December 2014 weather in Europe .
Continental Asian cold was hold at bay.  

Part 3: (08 January 2014
Part 3: What will bring winter to Europe ?
Posted 08 January 2013 (2007seatraing.de; 1412c)  
+ Add 1 (12.Jan.2014) Flooding in UK

To be continued 

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